Kacper Potulski
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kacper Potulski's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-17.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.3M-32.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 12.6M-40.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 51
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 52.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 18.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very unfavorable | est. €25.4M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +43% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 44% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1060 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 52 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1485
- Opponent strength
- 1480
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 44%
- Resale range (24m)
- €12.6M – €40.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -30% (IQR -39% to +96%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1060 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | CB | 15 | 1060 | 35% | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 1480 | 1485 | 0.94 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juanlu Sánchez Laliga · 2024 | 21 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Saël Kumbedi Ligue 1 · 2023 | 18 | €12.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Davide Calabria Serie A · 2018 | 22 | €13.0M | €9.5M | fell |
| Patrick Dorgu Serie A · 2024 | 20 | €12.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Jules Koundé Ligue 1 · 2018 | 20 | €7.0M | €22.5M | rose |
| Márton Dárdai Bundesliga · 2021 | 19 | €6.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Kurt Zouma Ligue 1 · 2013 | 19 | €7.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Kevin Danso Bundesliga · 2019 | 21 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2026 | FSV Mainz 05 II | Mainz | Unknown | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Mainz 05 U19 | FSV Mainz 05 II | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Mainz 05 U17 | Mainz 05 U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Legia U19 | Mainz 05 U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Nov 2022 | Legia Yth. | Legia U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Lechia Youth | Legia Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.