Ayden Heaven
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ayden Heaven's performance-implied value at EUR 8.6M-30.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 23.6M-48.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 22.7M-65.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 49
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 81.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 19.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €39.0M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 37% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 923 (27% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 82 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1715
- Opponent strength
- 1566
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 37%
- Resale range (24m)
- €22.7M – €65.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +41% (IQR -5% to +79%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 923 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Manchester United | Premier League | CB | 17 | 923 | 27% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 1566 | 1715 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Manchester United | Premier League | CB | 4 | 171 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1638 | 1603 | 1.23 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1539 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diogo Dalot Premier League · 2019 | 20 | €20.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold Premier League · 2018 | 20 | €25.0M | €99.0M | rose |
| Juan Foyth Premier League · 2019 | 21 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Lewis Hall Premier League · 2024 | 20 | €18.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Luke Shaw Premier League · 2017 | 22 | €20.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles Premier League · 2019 | 22 | €12.0M | €16.0M | rose |
| Conor Bradley Premier League · 2024 | 21 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Nuno Tavares Premier League · 2022 | 22 | €15.0M | €15.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2025 | Arsenal U21 | Man Utd | €1.8M | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Arsenal U18 | Arsenal U21 | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Arsenal Youth | Arsenal U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 5 Nov 2019 | West Ham Yth. | Arsenal Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.