Conor Bradley
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Conor Bradley's performance-implied value at EUR 14.0M-25.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.8M-32.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 13.6M-35.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 30
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 85.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €26.2M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 12% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 933 (27% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 86 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1682
- Opponent strength
- 1612
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 12%
- Resale range (24m)
- €13.6M – €35.5M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-117 Elo); relative output up 37% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +4% (IQR -20% to +37%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 933 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | RB | 15 | 933 | 27% | 0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.15 | 1612 | 1682 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | RB | 19 | 748 | 22% | 0 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.10 | 1530 | 1800 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | RB | 11 | 760 | 22% | 1 | 3 | 0.47 | 0.17 | 1535 | 1755 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 5 | 243 | 0 | 0 | 1681 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 5 | 277 | 0 | 1 | 1695 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 4 | 239 | 0 | 3 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Liverpool FC | 4 | 233 | 0 | 0 | 1549 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuno Tavares Premier League · 2022 | 22 | €15.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles Premier League · 2019 | 22 | €12.0M | €16.0M | rose |
| Yerry Mina Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Diogo Dalot Premier League · 2019 | 20 | €20.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Juan Foyth Premier League · 2019 | 21 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Ibrahima Konaté Bundesliga · 2021 | 22 | €35.0M | €38.0M | flat |
| Sergio Reguilón Laliga · 2019 | 23 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Luke Shaw Premier League · 2017 | 22 | €20.0M | €30.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Liverpool U21 | Liverpool | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 31 May 2023 | Bolton | Liverpool U21 | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Liverpool U21 | Bolton | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Liverpool U18 | Liverpool U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 3 Sept 2019 | Dungannon U18 | Liverpool U18 | €60k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.