Tiago Gabriel
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tiago Gabriel's performance-implied value at EUR 2.2M-14.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.5M-19.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 11.2M-31.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 97
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 57.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €10.0M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 20% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3220 (94% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 57 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1352
- Opponent strength
- 1510
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 20%
- Resale range (24m)
- €11.2M – €31.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 63 pts; changed club; team strength up (+183 Elo); league level up (+143 Elo); relative output down 23% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -9% (IQR -41% to +111%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | US Lecce | Serie A | CB | 37 | 3220 | 94% | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 1510 | 1352 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | CB | 11 | 981 | 32% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1319 | 1152 | 0.51 |
| 2024/25 | US Lecce | Serie A | CB | 2 | 94 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1591 | 1351 | 0.99 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabiano Parisi Serie A · 2023 | 23 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Antonio Rüdiger Bundesliga · 2014 | 21 | €6.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Caleb Okoli Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €8.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Jonjoe Kenny Bundesliga · 2020 | 23 | €9.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Malang Sarr Ligue 1 · 2019 | 20 | €18.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Sepp van den Berg Bundesliga · 2024 | 23 | €12.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Nikola Milenković Serie A · 2019 | 22 | €30.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Jordan Amavi Ligue 1 · 2015 | 21 | €4.0M | €10.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jan 2025 | Estrela Amadora | Lecce | €1.3M | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Estrela U23 | Estrela Amadora | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Setúbal U19 | Estrela U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Setúbal FC U17 | Setúbal U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Sporting U17 | Setúbal FC U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sporting Sub-15 | Sporting U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Sporting Yth. | Sporting Sub-15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.