Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-12.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.3M-23.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.9M-34.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 65
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 60.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very unfavorable | est. €18.5M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +77% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 35% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1402 (46% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 61 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1520
- Opponent strength
- 1492
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 35%
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.9M – €34.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +56% (IQR +3% to +118%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1402 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | CB | 20 | 1402 | 46% | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.15 | 1492 | 1520 | 0.88 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jules Koundé Ligue 1 · 2018 | 20 | €7.0M | €22.5M | rose |
| Adrien Truffert Ligue 1 · 2022 | 21 | €12.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Davide Calabria Serie A · 2018 | 22 | €13.0M | €9.5M | fell |
| Panagiotis Retsos Bundesliga · 2018 | 20 | €18.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Ricardo Rodríguez Bundesliga · 2013 | 21 | €10.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Quentin Merlin Ligue 1 · 2022 | 20 | €5.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Steven Caulker Premier League · 2013 | 22 | €6.5M | €7.5M | flat |
| Benjamin Mendy Ligue 1 · 2014 | 20 | €4.0M | €6.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2025 | Amiens SC | Stade Rennais | Free / loan | €500k |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Stade Rennais | Amiens SC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 2 Jul 2024 | AM Football | Stade Rennais | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | KAC Mar. Yth. | AM Football | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.