Khalis Merah
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Khalis Merah's performance-implied value at EUR 2.9M-21.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.4M-36.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.4M-33.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.45x the positional average in the league (1139 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 29
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 64.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 19.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very unfavorable | est. €26.1M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +47% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 30% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1139 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 64 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1554
- Opponent strength
- 1498
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 30%
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.4M – €33.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +73% (IQR +8% to +172%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1139 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | AM | 22 | 1139 | 37% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.18 | 1498 | 1554 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 8 | 402 | 1 | 1 | 1423 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Diouf Ligue 1 · 2024 | 21 | €9.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Amadou Onana Ligue 1 · 2022 | 21 | €10.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Vanderson Ligue 1 · 2022 | 21 | €18.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Eljif Elmas Serie A · 2020 | 21 | €15.5M | €24.0M | rose |
| Sergej Milinković-Savić Serie A · 2016 | 21 | €9.0M | €90.0M | rose |
| Fabio Miretti Serie A · 2024 | 21 | €15.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Manuel Locatelli Serie A · 2018 | 20 | €8.0M | €15.5M | rose |
| Eliot Matazo Ligue 1 · 2023 | 21 | €7.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Lyon | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2024 | Olymp. Lyon U17 | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Ol. Lyon Yth. | Olymp. Lyon U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.