Mateus Mané
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mateus Mané's performance-implied value at EUR 6.6M-43.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 14.7M-33.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 14.9M-37.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.14x the positional average in the league (1790 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 65
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 67.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 18.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €23.0M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 21% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1790 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.46
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 68 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1425
- Opponent strength
- 1615
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 21%
- Resale range (24m)
- €14.9M – €37.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +40% (IQR -35% to +73%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1790 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | AM | 27 | 1790 | 52% | 3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.46 | 1615 | 1425 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | AM | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 1559 | 1501 | 1.23 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 | 209 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brajan Gruda Bundesliga · 2024 | 20 | €20.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek Premier League · 2018 | 22 | €15.0M | €24.0M | rose |
| Naouirou Ahamada Bundesliga · 2023 | 21 | €10.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Mikel Merino Premier League · 2018 | 22 | €10.0M | €24.0M | rose |
| Kobbie Mainoo Premier League · 2024 | 19 | €50.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Kang-in Lee Laliga · 2021 | 20 | €10.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Marc Stendera Bundesliga · 2015 | 20 | €6.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Linton Maina Bundesliga · 2019 | 20 | €7.0M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Wolves U18 | Wolves | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Wolves Yth. | Wolves U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 20 Mar 2024 | Rochdale Youth | Wolves Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Barreirense J | Rochdale Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.