Jan Virgili
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jan Virgili's performance-implied value at EUR 2.4M-18.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.2M-25.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.5M-28.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.13x the positional average in the league (1796 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 27
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 50.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 19.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €20.0M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 28% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1796 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.40
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.46
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 50 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1421
- Opponent strength
- 1469
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 28%
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.5M – €28.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +73% (IQR +9% to +99%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1796 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RCD Mallorca | Laliga | LW | 31 | 1796 | 53% | 2 | 6 | 0.40 | 0.46 | 1469 | 1421 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Mallorca | 3 | 28 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberto Moleiro Laliga · 2024 | 21 | €15.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Timo Werner Bundesliga · 2014 | 18 | €12.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Mauro Icardi Serie A · 2013 | 20 | €12.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Ismaïla Sarr Ligue 1 · 2018 | 20 | €14.0M | €24.5M | rose |
| Samu Aghehowa Laliga · 2024 | 20 | €35.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Ishak Belfodil Serie A · 2013 | 21 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Wilson Odobert Premier League · 2024 | 20 | €10.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Tiago Tomás Bundesliga · 2023 | 21 | €7.0M | €12.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2025 | Barça Atlètic | RCD Mallorca | €3.5M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jan 2025 | Barça U19 | Barça Atlètic | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 19 Aug 2024 | Nàstic U19 | Barça U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Gimnàstic de Ta | Nàstic U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.