Samu Aghehowa
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Samu Aghehowa's performance-implied value at EUR 5.6M-20.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 35.3M-61.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 26.0M-54.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.93x the positional average in the league (1413 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 13
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 72th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €47.4M vs market €45.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 8% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1413 (46% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.89
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.47
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 72 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1594
- Opponent strength
- 1308
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 8%
- Resale range (24m)
- €26.0M – €54.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 28 pts; team strength up (+86 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +25% (IQR -28% to +61%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1413 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | ST | 20 | 1413 | 46% | 13 | 1 | 0.89 | 0.47 | 1308 | 1594 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | ST | 30 | 2264 | 74% | 19 | 3 | 0.87 | 0.48 | 1338 | 1508 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | ST | 34 | 1924 | 56% | 8 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.65 | 1512 | 1431 | 1.00 |
| 2023/24 | Granada CF | Laliga | ST | 1 | 82 | 2% | 1 | 0 | 1.10 | 1.04 | 1656 | 1315 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Porto | 7 | 467 | 3 | 0 | 1426 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | FC Porto | 9 | 768 | 6 | 0 | 1551 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetê Premier Liga · 2022 | 22 | €22.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Douglas Costa Premier Liga · 2015 | 25 | €23.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Malik Tillman Eredivisie · 2024 | 22 | €20.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Gökhan Töre Super Lig · 2016 | 24 | €15.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Krépin Diatta Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 22 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Francisco Trincão Liga Portugal · 2024 | 25 | €20.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Darwin Núñez Liga Portugal · 2021 | 22 | €20.0M | €65.0M | rose |
| Santiago Gimenez Eredivisie · 2023 | 22 | €25.0M | €30.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug 2024 | Atlético | Porto | €32.0M | €35.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Alavés | Atlético | Free / loan | €35.0M |
| 26 Aug 2023 | Atlético | Alavés | Free / loan | €200k |
| 21 Aug 2023 | Granada CF | Atlético | €6.0M | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Recre Granada | Granada CF | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Granada CF U19 | Recre Granada | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Nervión U19 | Granada CF U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.