Wilson Odobert
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Wilson Odobert's performance-implied value at EUR 17.9M-38.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.4M-26.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.4M-28.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.70x the positional average in the league (981 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 31
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 83.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €18.9M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 10% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 981 (29% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.28
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 83 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1564
- Opponent strength
- 1566
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 10%
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.4M – €28.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +15% (IQR -11% to +84%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 981 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | LW | 24 | 981 | 29% | 0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.28 | 1566 | 1564 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | LW | 16 | 849 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.27 | 1594 | 1564 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Burnley FC | Premier League | LW | 29 | 2108 | 62% | 3 | 3 | 0.26 | 0.47 | 1589 | 1366 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | ESTAC Troyes | Ligue 1 | RW | 32 | 1765 | 52% | 4 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.43 | 1460 | 1247 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Tottenham Hotspur | 7 | 484 | 1 | 2 | 1533 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 83 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Tottenham Hotspur | 4 | 141 | 2 | 0 | 1498 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 1 | 58 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Schade Premier League · 2023 | 22 | €25.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Francisco Trincão Premier League · 2022 | 23 | €20.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Pedro Neto Premier League · 2023 | 23 | €28.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Adama Traoré Premier League · 2019 | 23 | €15.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Matheus Cunha Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €25.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Reiss Nelson Premier League · 2020 | 21 | €12.5M | €6.5M | fell |
| Anthony Elanga Premier League · 2022 | 20 | €20.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Moussa Djenepo Premier League · 2021 | 23 | €13.0M | €8.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug 2024 | Burnley | Tottenham | €29.3M | €10.0M |
| 12 Aug 2023 | Troyes | Burnley | €12.0M | €6.0M |
| 15 Jul 2022 | Paris SG U19 | Troyes | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Paris SG U17 | Paris SG U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | PSG Youth | Paris SG U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.