Frenkie de Jong
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Frenkie de Jong's performance-implied value at EUR 21.8M-33.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 14.8M-35.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.7M-23.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.71x the positional average in the league (1631 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 15
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 94.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €22.9M vs market €35.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -53% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1631 (48% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.33
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 95 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1787
- Opponent strength
- 1449
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €10.7M – €23.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -59% (IQR -68% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1631 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 25 | 1631 | 48% | 1 | 5 | 0.33 | 0.16 | 1449 | 1787 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 26 | 1136 | 33% | 2 | 2 | 0.32 | 0.18 | 1504 | 1792 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 20 | 1637 | 48% | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 1479 | 1723 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 33 | 2538 | 74% | 2 | 4 | 0.21 | 0.14 | 1510 | 1696 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 32 | 2487 | 73% | 3 | 3 | 0.22 | 0.17 | 1535 | 1686 | 1.05 |
| 2019/20 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | CM | 29 | 2120 | 62% | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 1535 | 1813 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | DM | 31 | 2517 | 82% | 3 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.09 | 1335 | 1746 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 22 | 1559 | 51% | 0 | 8 | 0.46 | 0.16 | 1306 | 1627 | 0.59 |
| 2016/17 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | CM | 4 | 149 | 5% | 1 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.12 | 1227 | 1627 | 0.54 |
| 2015/16 | Willem II Tilburg | Eredivisie | CM | 1 | 20 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1353 | 1231 | 0.58 |
| 2014/15 | Willem II Tilburg | Eredivisie | RM | 1 | 22 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 1303 | 1254 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 8 | 514 | 0 | 1 | 1659 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 3 | 270 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Netherlands | 3 | 221 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 2 | 154 | 0 | 0 | 1654 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 13 | 800 | 0 | 0 | 1688 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 6 | 535 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1673 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 5 | 395 | 0 | 0 | 1682 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1625 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 4 | 235 | 0 | 0 | 1727 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | FC Barcelona | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1692 |
| 2022/23 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 2 | 150 | 0 | 0 | 1738 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 6 | 523 | 0 | 0 | 1714 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | FC Barcelona | 6 | 386 | 1 | 2 | 1503 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 2 | 88 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 1 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 1829 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 9 | 747 | 0 | 0 | 1637 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 3 | 270 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2019/20 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 1 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1712 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 11 | 986 | 0 | 0 | 1701 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Ajax Amsterdam | 6 | 529 | 0 | 0 | 1435 |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 379 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 160 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1567 |
| 2016/17 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 3 | 87 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1531 |
| 2015/16 | Knvb Beker | Willem II Tilburg | 1 | 33 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Cuadrado Serie A · 2016 | 28 | €25.0M | €28.0M | flat |
| Hakim Ziyech Premier League · 2022 | 29 | €28.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| İlkay Gündoğan Premier League · 2018 | 28 | €40.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Thomas Delaney Bundesliga · 2021 | 30 | €15.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Marcel Sabitzer Bundesliga · 2024 | 30 | €20.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Carlos Soler Ligue 1 · 2024 | 27 | €20.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Alex Sandro Serie A · 2016 | 25 | €26.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Emil Forsberg Bundesliga · 2020 | 29 | €22.5M | €11.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2019 | Ajax | Barcelona | €86.0M | €85.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Ajax U21 | Ajax | Unknown | €600k |
| 31 Dec 2015 | Willem II | Ajax U21 | Free / loan | €400k |
| 23 Aug 2015 | Ajax U21 | Willem II | Free / loan | €250k |
| 22 Aug 2015 | Willem II | Ajax U21 | €7.7M | €250k |
| 1 May 2015 | Willem II U21 | Willem II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2015 | Willem II U19 | Willem II U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2014 | Willem II U17 | Willem II U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Willem II/RKC Y. | Willem II/RKC-17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.