Deniz Undav
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Deniz Undav's performance-implied value at EUR 12.0M-37.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.4M-25.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.5M-17.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.37x the positional average in the league (2249 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 4
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 92.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €17.6M vs market €22.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -55% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2249 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 1.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.69
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 92 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1567
- Opponent strength
- 1495
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.5M – €17.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 17 pts; relative output up 60% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -72% to -26%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | ST | 29 | 2249 | 73% | 19 | 6 | 1.00 | 0.69 | 1495 | 1567 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | ST | 27 | 1729 | 57% | 9 | 3 | 0.62 | 0.45 | 1519 | 1531 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | ST | 30 | 2097 | 69% | 18 | 10 | 1.20 | 0.85 | 1526 | 1637 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | ST | 22 | 619 | 18% | 5 | 0 | 0.73 | 0.53 | 1531 | 1619 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 33 | 2896 | 95% | 25 | 10 | 1.09 | 0.70 | 1341 | 1499 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | VfB Stuttgart | 10 | 765 | 3 | 6 | 1483 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 451 | 3 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1760 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Germany | 3 | 86 | 3 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 425 | 1 | 1 | 1665 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 233 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 1761 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 242 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 5 | 147 | 2 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrej Kramaric Bundesliga · 2021 | 30 | €28.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Alexander Sørloth Laliga · 2024 | 29 | €25.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Paulo Dybala Serie A · 2024 | 31 | €20.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Balázs Dzsudzsák Premier Liga · 2015 | 29 | €11.0M | €4.3M | fell |
| Jonas Hofmann Bundesliga · 2021 | 29 | €16.0M | €13.0M | flat |
| Vincenzo Grifo Bundesliga · 2021 | 28 | €12.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Aleksandr Kerzhakov Premier Liga · 2013 | 31 | €12.0M | €2.8M | fell |
| Alassane Pléa Bundesliga · 2022 | 29 | €15.0M | €7.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Aug 2024 | Brighton | Stuttgart | €26.7M | €25.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Stuttgart | Brighton | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 2 Aug 2023 | Brighton | Stuttgart | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Union SG | Brighton | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Brighton | Union SG | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Jan 2022 | Union SG | Brighton | €7.0M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | SV Meppen | Union SG | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Braunschweig II | SV Meppen | Free / loan | €225k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | TSV Havelse | Braunschweig II | Free / loan | €175k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | TSV Havelse U19 | TSV Havelse | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | SC Weyhe U19 | TSV Havelse U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | SC Weyhe U17 | SC Weyhe U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | W. Bremen Yth. | SC Weyhe U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2007 | TSV Achim Yth. | W. Bremen Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.