Evan Ndicka
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Evan Ndicka's performance-implied value at EUR 19.6M-58.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 25.0M-41.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.7M-36.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 18
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 96th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €32.7M vs market €35.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2683 (79% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 96 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1638
- Opponent strength
- 1492
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.7M – €36.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 22 pts; relative output up 40% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -43% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | CB | 31 | 2683 | 78% | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 1492 | 1638 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | CB | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1492 | 1668 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | CB | 25 | 2169 | 63% | 0 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 1489 | 1618 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | CB | 30 | 2693 | 88% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1513 | 1541 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | CB | 32 | 2858 | 93% | 4 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.16 | 1507 | 1594 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | CB | 23 | 2045 | 67% | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 1546 | 1602 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | CB | 22 | 1724 | 56% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 1536 | 1535 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | CB | 27 | 2303 | 75% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 1502 | 1593 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 10 | 752 | 2 | 0 | 1496 |
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Ivory Coast | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 11 | 990 | 1 | 0 | 1559 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 9 | 755 | 0 | 0 | 1578 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 720 | 0 | 1 | 1680 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 405 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Super Cup | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1829 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 11 | 970 | 0 | 0 | 1563 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 405 | 1 | 1 | 1622 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1264 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 708 | 0 | 1 | 1561 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konstantinos Manolas Serie A · 2017 | 26 | €30.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo Serie A · 2022 | 29 | €25.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Ezequiel Garay Premier Liga · 2015 | 29 | €23.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Hiroki Ito Bundesliga · 2024 | 25 | €30.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Axel Disasi Premier League · 2024 | 26 | €40.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Waldemar Anton Bundesliga · 2024 | 28 | €20.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Gianluca Mancini Serie A · 2023 | 27 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Robin Le Normand Laliga · 2024 | 28 | €40.0M | €20.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Frankfurt | Roma | Free / loan | €28.0M |
| 5 Jul 2018 | AJ Auxerre | Frankfurt | €5.5M | €400k |
| 25 Jan 2017 | AJ Auxerre B | AJ Auxerre | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | AJ Auxerre U19 | AJ Auxerre B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | AJ Auxerre U17 | AJ Auxerre U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | AJ Auxerre Yth. | AJ Auxerre U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.