Jakub Kamiński
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jakub Kamiński's performance-implied value at EUR 5.1M-15.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.5M-24.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.0M-30.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.95x the positional average in the league (3023 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 43
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 64th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €16.9M vs market €17.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3023 (99% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.36
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.39
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 64 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1347
- Opponent strength
- 1496
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.0M – €30.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 62 pts; changed club; team strength down (-91 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -36% to +76%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | LW | 34 | 3023 | 99% | 7 | 5 | 0.36 | 0.39 | 1496 | 1347 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | LW | 22 | 1123 | 37% | 0 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.35 | 1501 | 1438 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | LW | 17 | 465 | 15% | 0 | 2 | 0.39 | 0.34 | 1481 | 1427 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | LW | 31 | 2071 | 68% | 4 | 3 | 0.30 | 0.27 | 1503 | 1525 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 2 | 154 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 4 | 137 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 2 | 141 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 2 | 115 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duván Zapata Serie A · 2017 | 26 | €8.5M | €40.0M | rose |
| Jonas Wind Bundesliga · 2024 | 25 | €20.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Hugo Duro Laliga · 2024 | 25 | €16.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Luis Suárez Laliga · 2022 | 25 | €9.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Andrea Petagna Serie A · 2019 | 24 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Ritsu Doan Bundesliga · 2021 | 23 | €7.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Manolo Gabbiadini Serie A · 2014 | 23 | €11.0M | €17.0M | rose |
| Andrea Pinamonti Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €15.0M | €15.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Wolfsburg | 1.FC Köln | €5.5M | €17.0M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | 1.FC Köln | Wolfsburg | Free / loan | €17.0M |
| 4 Jul 2025 | Wolfsburg | 1.FC Köln | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Lech Poznan | Wolfsburg | €10.0M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Lech U19 | Lech Poznan | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Lech Youth | Lech U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Szombierki B. | Lech Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.