Bryan Mbeumo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bryan Mbeumo's performance-implied value at EUR 45.7M-93.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 47.0M-97.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 41.4M-84.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.14x the positional average in the league (2625 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 28
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 98.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €75.0M vs market €75.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2625 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.48
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.45
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 98 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1715
- Opponent strength
- 1610
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €41.4M – €84.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 23 pts; changed club; team strength up (+132 Elo); relative output down 27% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -40% to -3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Manchester United | Premier League | RW | 33 | 2625 | 77% | 11 | 3 | 0.48 | 0.45 | 1610 | 1715 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Brentford FC | Premier League | RW | 38 | 3417 | 100% | 20 | 8 | 0.74 | 0.67 | 1574 | 1583 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Brentford FC | Premier League | RW | 25 | 1961 | 57% | 9 | 6 | 0.69 | 0.51 | 1547 | 1500 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Brentford FC | Premier League | RW | 38 | 2928 | 86% | 9 | 8 | 0.52 | 0.55 | 1562 | 1623 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Brentford FC | Premier League | SS | 35 | 2916 | 85% | 4 | 7 | 0.34 | 0.62 | 1559 | 1483 | 1.17 |
| 2017/18 | ESTAC Troyes | Ligue 1 | RW | 4 | 60 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1444 | 1261 | 0.85 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Cameroon | 5 | 405 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 1 | 28 | 3 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Griezmann Laliga · 2018 | 27 | €100M | €96.0M | flat |
| Alexis Sánchez Premier League · 2016 | 28 | €55.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Timo Werner Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €65.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Ollie Watkins Premier League · 2023 | 28 | €40.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Mohamed Salah Premier League · 2021 | 29 | €100M | €65.0M | fell |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang Bundesliga · 2018 | 29 | €75.0M | €56.0M | fell |
| Thorgan Hazard Bundesliga · 2020 | 27 | €32.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Lucas Ocampos Laliga · 2020 | 26 | €32.0M | €25.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jul 2025 | Brentford | Man Utd | €75.0M | €55.0M |
| 5 Aug 2019 | Troyes | Brentford | €6.5M | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | ESTAC Troyes B | Troyes | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Troyes U17 | ESTAC Troyes B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Troyes For. | Troyes U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.