Justin de Haas
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Justin de Haas's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-5.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.9M-10.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.1M-11.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 43
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 53.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €7.0M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2790 (91% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 54 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1406
- Opponent strength
- 1324
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.1M – €11.4M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+73 Elo); relative output up 79% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -54% to -4%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | CB | 31 | 2790 | 91% | 5 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 1324 | 1406 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | CB | 29 | 2466 | 81% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1347 | 1333 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | CB | 22 | 1597 | 52% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1379 | 1321 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Gigot Premier Liga · 2021 | 28 | €11.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Daniel Muñoz Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 25 | €8.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Aderllan Santos Liga Portugal · 2015 | 26 | €7.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Christian Luyindama Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 24 | €6.0M | €5.5M | flat |
| Christian Kabasele Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 25 | €6.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Riechedly Bazoer Eredivisie · 2021 | 25 | €4.5M | €2.8M | fell |
| Nick Viergever Eredivisie · 2014 | 25 | €4.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Miroslav Bogosavac Premier Liga · 2023 | 27 | €3.5M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Famalicão | Valencia | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 3 Jul 2023 | NK Lokomotiva | Famalicão | Unknown | €600k |
| 7 Jul 2021 | PSV U21 | NK Lokomotiva | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Din. Zagreb II | PSV U21 | Free / loan | €400k |
| 16 Feb 2021 | PSV U21 | Din. Zagreb II | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | AZ U19 | PSV U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | AZ U17 | AZ U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | AZ Alkmaar Yth. | AZ U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | KFC Youth | AZ Alkmaar Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.