Marco Carnesecchi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marco Carnesecchi's performance-implied value at EUR 12.2M-41.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 22.2M-37.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 18.3M-48.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 54
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 93.7th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €27.9M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3330 (97% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 94 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1588
- Opponent strength
- 1485
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €18.3M – €48.1M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-91 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -26% (IQR -30% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1485 | 1588 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | GK | 34 | 3060 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1495 | 1679 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | GK | 27 | 2426 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1483 | 1709 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | US Cremonese | Serie A | GK | 27 | 2430 | 71% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1468 | 1269 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 10 | 900 | 0 | 0 | 1660 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 9 | 810 | 0 | 0 | 1620 |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | Atalanta BC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1833 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Atalanta BC | 1 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1530 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | US Cremonese | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unai Simón Laliga · 2024 | 27 | €30.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Igor Akinfeev Premier Liga · 2013 | 27 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Thomas Strakosha Serie A · 2020 | 25 | €20.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Álex Remiro Laliga · 2023 | 28 | €25.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Bernd Leno Bundesliga · 2018 | 26 | €20.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Fernando Muslera Super Lig · 2013 | 27 | €16.0M | €17.0M | flat |
| Anthony Lopes Ligue 1 · 2017 | 27 | €14.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Pau López Serie A · 2020 | 26 | €19.0M | €12.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2023 | Cremonese | Atalanta | Free / loan | €13.0M |
| 31 Aug 2022 | Atalanta | Cremonese | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Cremonese | Atalanta | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 5 Jan 2021 | Atalanta | Cremonese | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 31 Aug 2020 | Trapani | Atalanta | Free / loan | €2.1M |
| 25 Jul 2019 | Atalanta | Trapani | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Atalanta U19 | Atalanta | Unknown | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Cesena U17 | Atalanta U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Jan 2017 | Atalanta U19 | Cesena U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jan 2017 | Cesena U17 | Atalanta U19 | €1.9M | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | AC Cesena Youth | Cesena U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Sant'Ermete | AC Cesena Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.