Lucas Chevalier
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lucas Chevalier's performance-implied value at EUR 14.8M-34.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 18.2M-35.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 16.8M-43.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 71
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 92.7th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €25.1M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1530 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 93 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1818
- Opponent strength
- 1453
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €16.8M – €43.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 50 pts; changed club; team strength up (+223 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -28% to +12%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1530 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | GK | 17 | 1530 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1453 | 1817 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1439 | 1594 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | GK | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1473 | 1552 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | GK | 32 | 2880 | 84% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1430 | 1555 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1703 |
| 2025/26 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1580 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Super Cup | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1564 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | LOSC Lille | 10 | 900 | 0 | 0 | 1660 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | LOSC Lille | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | 1597 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | LOSC Lille | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1518 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wojciech Szczesny Serie A · 2018 | 28 | €20.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma Ligue 1 · 2022 | 23 | €50.0M | €40.0M | fell |
| Alphonse Areola Ligue 1 · 2019 | 26 | €17.5M | €17.0M | flat |
| Kevin Trapp Ligue 1 · 2017 | 27 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Pierluigi Gollini Serie A · 2021 | 26 | €17.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Jan Oblak Laliga · 2017 | 24 | €40.0M | €100M | rose |
| Mattia Perin Serie A · 2019 | 27 | €13.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Dean Henderson Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €22.0M | €18.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Aug 2025 | Lille | PSG | €40.0M | €30.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Valenciennes FC | Lille | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 9 Jul 2021 | Lille | Valenciennes FC | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | LOSC Lille B | Lille | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | LOSC Lille U17 | LOSC Lille B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | LOSC Lille Yth. | LOSC Lille U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.