Sergi Altimira
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sergi Altimira's performance-implied value at EUR 6.3M-19.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.9M-25.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.3M-30.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.91x the positional average in the league (1182 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 41
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 74.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €18.7M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1182 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 75 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1549
- Opponent strength
- 1471
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €10.3M – €30.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 23 pts; relative output up 72% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -14% (IQR -40% to +1%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1182 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CM | 24 | 1182 | 35% | 1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.20 | 1471 | 1549 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CM | 32 | 1973 | 58% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 1519 | 1555 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CM | 14 | 566 | 17% | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.27 | 1603 | 1520 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 11 | 630 | 0 | 0 | 1463 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 5 | 359 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 4 | 182 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 177 | 0 | 0 | 1284 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 3 | 230 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adem Ljajic Serie A · 2016 | 25 | €15.0M | €13.0M | flat |
| Nicolò Rovella Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €18.0M | €23.0M | rose |
| Unai López Laliga · 2021 | 26 | €12.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Nadiem Amiri Bundesliga · 2019 | 23 | €17.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Denis Zakaria Bundesliga · 2021 | 25 | €30.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Roberto Gagliardini Serie A · 2019 | 25 | €15.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Lovro Majer Ligue 1 · 2023 | 25 | €20.0M | €17.0M | flat |
| Gaetano Castrovilli Serie A · 2022 | 25 | €12.0M | €7.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug 2023 | Getafe | Real Betis | €2.0M | €300k |
| 6 Jul 2023 | CE Sabadell | Getafe | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Granollers | CE Sabadell | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 2 Jul 2020 | CE Sabadell | Granollers | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Sabadell U19 | CE Sabadell | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Barça U18 | Sabadell U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Barça U16 | Barça U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Barça Youth | Barça U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.