Malik Tillman
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Malik Tillman's performance-implied value at EUR 12.9M-42.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 18.6M-38.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 18.5M-47.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.65x the positional average in the league (1677 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 39
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 84.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €29.1M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1677 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.38
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.26
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 84 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1626
- Opponent strength
- 1467
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €18.5M – €47.0M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; league level up (+168 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -29% to +29%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1677 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | AM | 29 | 1677 | 55% | 6 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.26 | 1467 | 1626 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | AM | 26 | 1919 | 63% | 12 | 2 | 0.66 | 0.29 | 1305 | 1632 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | LW | 28 | 1591 | 52% | 9 | 11 | 1.13 | 0.41 | 1334 | 1659 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Rangers FC | Scottish Premiership | AM | 28 | 1943 | 65% | 10 | 4 | 0.65 | 0.33 | 1295 | 1527 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | RW | 4 | 102 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1497 | 1847 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 10 | 533 | 2 | 0 | 1643 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | United States | 3 | 176 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3 | 125 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 534 | 3 | 2 | 1595 |
| 2024/25 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1593 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 60 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 503 | 0 | 3 | 1659 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 135 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1528 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Rangers FC | 4 | 328 | 1 | 1 | 1588 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Rangers FC | 5 | 246 | 0 | 0 | 1751 |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | Rangers FC | 3 | 193 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 1 | 45 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1646 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nordi Mukiele Bundesliga · 2021 | 24 | €25.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Oscar Premier League · 2016 | 25 | €35.0M | €24.0M | fell |
| Piotr Zielinski Serie A · 2018 | 24 | €32.0M | €32.0M | flat |
| Rodrigo Bentancur Serie A · 2020 | 23 | €40.0M | €28.0M | fell |
| Timothy Castagne Serie A · 2020 | 25 | €16.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Geoffrey Kondogbia Serie A · 2016 | 23 | €24.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Andrea Cambiaso Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini Serie A · 2020 | 24 | €32.0M | €45.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2025 | PSV | Leverkusen | €35.0M | €32.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Bayern Munich | PSV | €12.0M | €20.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | PSV | Bayern Munich | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 10 Aug 2023 | Bayern Munich | PSV | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Rangers | Bayern Munich | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 15 Jul 2022 | Bayern Munich | Rangers | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | FC Bayern II | Bayern Munich | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | FC Bayern U19 | FC Bayern II | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | FC Bayern U17 | FC Bayern U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | B. München Yth. | FC Bayern U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 20 Aug 2015 | Gr. Fürth Yth. | B. München Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.