Josko Gvardiol
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Josko Gvardiol's performance-implied value at EUR 44.1M-74.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 47.9M-106.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 37.1M-79.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 6
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 98.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €80.2M vs market €70.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -31% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1374 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.26
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 98 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1809
- Opponent strength
- 1591
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €37.1M – €79.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 56 pts; team strength up (+60 Elo); role change LB -> CB; relative output up 145% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -4% (IQR -26% to +24%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1374 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Manchester City | Premier League | CB | 18 | 1374 | 40% | 2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.11 | 1591 | 1809 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Manchester City | Premier League | LB | 37 | 3280 | 96% | 5 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 1554 | 1749 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Manchester City | Premier League | LB | 28 | 2329 | 68% | 4 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 1555 | 1893 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | CB | 30 | 2170 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1529 | 1685 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | CB | 29 | 2413 | 79% | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 1519 | 1663 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 5 | 440 | 0 | 2 | 1653 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Croatia | 3 | 137 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 10 | 814 | 0 | 2 | 1682 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 3 | 270 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1594 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 6 | 570 | 1 | 1 | 1709 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Super Cup | Manchester City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1568 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 6 | 540 | 2 | 0 | 1720 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 5 | 295 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | RB Leipzig | 6 | 513 | 0 | 0 | 1611 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 6 | 334 | 0 | 0 | 1701 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 5 | 252 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Héctor Bellerín Premier League · 2019 | 24 | €40.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Ferland Mendy Laliga · 2020 | 25 | €32.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Andrew Robertson Premier League · 2018 | 24 | €25.0M | €64.0M | rose |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold Premier League · 2024 | 26 | €70.0M | €60.0M | flat |
| Rúben Dias Premier League · 2022 | 25 | €75.0M | €80.0M | flat |
| Álvaro Odriozola Laliga · 2019 | 24 | €25.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Sven Botman Premier League · 2024 | 24 | €45.0M | €35.0M | fell |
| William Saliba Premier League · 2023 | 22 | €65.0M | €80.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2023 | Leipzig | Man City | €90.0M | €75.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Dinamo Zagreb | Leipzig | €36.8M | €19.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Din. Zagreb U19 | Dinamo Zagreb | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 26 Jan 2019 | Din. Zagreb U17 | Din. Zagreb U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | D. Zagreb Yth. | Din. Zagreb U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 3 Sept 2010 | NK Tresnjevka | D. Zagreb Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.