Neco Williams
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Neco Williams's performance-implied value at EUR 30.4M-42.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 17.6M-37.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 18.6M-40.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 37
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 95.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €30.0M vs market €28.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3206 (94% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 96 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1635
- Opponent strength
- 1601
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €18.6M – €40.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; team strength up (+63 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -7% (IQR -17% to +50%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | LB | 37 | 3206 | 94% | 2 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.17 | 1601 | 1635 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | LB | 35 | 2592 | 76% | 1 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 1554 | 1573 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | RB | 26 | 1634 | 48% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 1580 | 1428 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | RB | 31 | 1876 | 55% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 1572 | 1433 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | RB | 1 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 12.86 | 0.10 | 1420 | 1898 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | RB | 6 | 249 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1489 | 1763 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | RB | 6 | 230 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1552 | 1842 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Nottingham Forest | 15 | 1046 | 0 | 1 | 1551 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 3 | 188 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 292 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 1 | 79 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 3 | 181 | 0 | 0 | 1660 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Fulham FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 4 | 189 | 0 | 1 | 1672 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Community Shield | Liverpool FC | 1 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1641 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Keane Premier League · 2019 | 26 | €30.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Tyrick Mitchell Premier League · 2024 | 25 | €25.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Ben White Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €55.0M | €45.0M | flat |
| Gabriel Premier League · 2022 | 25 | €38.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Rico Henry Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €28.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Pau Torres Laliga · 2020 | 23 | €16.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Diogo Dalot Premier League · 2024 | 25 | €35.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Joachim Andersen Premier League · 2022 | 26 | €25.0M | €35.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2022 | Liverpool | Nott'm Forest | €20.0M | €8.0M |
| 31 May 2022 | Fulham | Liverpool | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Liverpool | Fulham | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Liverpool U23 | Liverpool | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Liverpool U18 | Liverpool U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Liverpool Youth | Liverpool U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.