Dan Ballard
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dan Ballard's performance-implied value at EUR 6.5M-22.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 14.0M-30.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 11.1M-26.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 57
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 82.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €21.1M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2148 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 83 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1496
- Opponent strength
- 1616
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €11.1M – €26.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -61% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sunderland AFC | Premier League | CB | 29 | 2148 | 63% | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.18 | 1616 | 1496 | 1.30 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Sunderland AFC | 2 | 139 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Nissen Kristensen Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €13.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Fabian Schär Premier League · 2019 | 28 | €8.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Kenny Tete Premier League · 2023 | 28 | €15.0M | €13.0M | flat |
| Mason Holgate Premier League · 2022 | 26 | €18.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Lloyd Kelly Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €18.0M | €16.0M | flat |
| Patrick van Aanholt Premier League · 2018 | 28 | €9.0M | €9.5M | flat |
| Ramy Bensebaini Bundesliga · 2022 | 27 | €17.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Jamaal Lascelles Premier League · 2021 | 28 | €13.0M | €4.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Arsenal U21 | Sunderland | €2.3M | €2.0M |
| 31 May 2022 | Millwall | Arsenal U23 | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Arsenal U23 | Millwall | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 May 2021 | Blackpool | Arsenal U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Arsenal U23 | Blackpool | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 22 Jan 2020 | Swindon Town | Arsenal U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 3 Jul 2019 | Arsenal U23 | Swindon Town | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Arsenal U18 | Arsenal U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Arsenal Youth | Arsenal U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.