Morgan Rogers
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Morgan Rogers's performance-implied value at EUR 70.7M-95.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 54.7M-123.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 62.4M-100.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.93x the positional average in the league (3285 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 19
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 99.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €98.8M vs market €90.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3285 (96% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.47
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.37
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 100 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1721
- Opponent strength
- 1586
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €62.4M – €100M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -24% to +21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aston Villa | Premier League | AM | 37 | 3285 | 96% | 10 | 7 | 0.47 | 0.37 | 1586 | 1721 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Aston Villa | Premier League | AM | 37 | 3131 | 92% | 8 | 11 | 0.55 | 0.42 | 1569 | 1695 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Aston Villa | Premier League | LW | 11 | 641 | 19% | 3 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.46 | 1626 | 1586 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Aston Villa | 14 | 999 | 2 | 4 | 1538 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 2 | 167 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | England | 3 | 125 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Aston Villa | 12 | 1025 | 4 | 3 | 1638 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 5 | 340 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Middlesbrough FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Rice Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €90.0M | €120M | rose |
| Dele Alli Premier League · 2018 | 22 | €100M | €64.0M | fell |
| Mason Mount Premier League · 2021 | 22 | €75.0M | €60.0M | fell |
| Koke Laliga · 2017 | 25 | €60.0M | €70.0M | flat |
| Rodri Laliga · 2019 | 23 | €80.0M | €70.0M | flat |
| Martin Ødegaard Premier League · 2024 | 26 | €110M | €65.0M | fell |
| Moisés Caicedo Premier League · 2024 | 23 | €75.0M | €100M | rose |
| Rúben Neves Premier League · 2020 | 23 | €40.0M | €40.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2024 | Middlesbrough | Aston Villa | €9.4M | €2.8M |
| 7 Jul 2023 | Man City U21 | Middlesbrough | €1.2M | €1.8M |
| 31 May 2023 | Blackpool | Man City U21 | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 4 Jan 2023 | Man City U21 | Blackpool | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 31 May 2022 | Bournemouth | Man City U23 | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 23 Aug 2021 | Man City U23 | Bournemouth | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 31 May 2021 | Lincoln City | Man City U23 | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 4 Jan 2021 | Man City U23 | Lincoln City | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 1 Aug 2019 | West Brom U18 | Man City U23 | €4.4M | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | West Brom Yth. | West Brom U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.