Amar Dedić
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Amar Dedić's performance-implied value at EUR 3.2M-10.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.5M-22.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.9M-26.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 51
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 65.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €15.6M vs market €16.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1903 (62% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 66 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1634
- Opponent strength
- 1347
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.9M – €26.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -2% (IQR -47% to +75%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | RB | 24 | 1903 | 62% | 1 | 5 | 0.28 | 0.13 | 1347 | 1634 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | RB | 10 | 309 | 10% | 0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.15 | 1481 | 1557 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 10 | 804 | 0 | 0 | 1653 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SL Benfica | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1510 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | SL Benfica | 1 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1610 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Fußballclub Red Bull Salzburg | 7 | 630 | 0 | 1 | 1653 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Fußballclub Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | 360 | 0 | 1 | 1479 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergiño Dest Eredivisie · 2024 | 24 | €22.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Jarrad Branthwaite Eredivisie · 2023 | 21 | €10.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Odilon Kossounou Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 20 | €13.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Jetro Willems Eredivisie · 2017 | 23 | €7.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Mauro Júnior Eredivisie · 2022 | 23 | €6.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Alejandro Grimaldo Liga Portugal · 2017 | 22 | €9.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Andrea Conti Serie A · 2020 | 26 | €12.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Jorge Ligue 1 · 2018 | 22 | €12.0M | €3.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jul 2025 | Salzburg | Benfica | €12.0M | €12.0M |
| 10 Jun 2025 | Marseille | Salzburg | €100k | €12.0M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Salzburg | Marseille | €1.5M | €15.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Wolfsberger AC | Salzburg | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Salzburg | Wolfsberger AC | Free / loan | €900k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | FC Liefering | Salzburg | Unknown | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | AKA Salzb. U18 | FC Liefering | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | AKA Salzb. U16 | AKA Salzb. U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | AKA Salzb. U15 | AKA Salzb. U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 14 Oct 2015 | Sturm Graz Yth | AKA Salzb. U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 13 Aug 2012 | LUV Graz Youth | Sturm Graz Yth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.