Darko Nejasmic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Darko Nejasmic's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-3.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.7M-4.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.98x the positional average in the league (2311 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 84
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 26.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.5M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2311 (76% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 27 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1362
- Opponent strength
- 1322
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.7M – €4.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -36% (IQR -43% to -14%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | DM | 29 | 2311 | 76% | 4 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.12 | 1322 | 1362 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | NK Osijek | 4 | 345 | 0 | 0 | 1343 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arno Verschueren Eredivisie · 2024 | 27 | €2.7M | €700k | fell |
| Facundo Pereyra Super League 1 · 2015 | 28 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Oleksandr Pikhalyonok Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Soner Dikmen Super Lig · 2022 | 29 | €2.8M | €1.7M | fell |
| Emre Kılınç Super Lig · 2020 | 26 | €4.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Josip Radosevic Superliga · 2022 | 28 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Haris Hajradinovic Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €3.3M | €2.7M | flat |
| Petros Mantalos Super League 1 · 2017 | 26 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | Sharjah FC | NEC Nijmegen | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 6 Sept 2024 | NK Osijek | Sharjah FC | €1.0M | €1.8M |
| 7 Jul 2022 | Hajduk Split | NK Osijek | €1.3M | €1.3M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | NK Osijek | Hajduk Split | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 2 Jul 2021 | Hajduk Split | NK Osijek | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Hajduk Split II | Hajduk Split | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Hajduk U19 | Hajduk Split II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Hajduk U17 | Hajduk U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 10 Aug 2015 | Adriatic Split | Hajduk U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.