Anatoliy Trubin

25 yrs · Goalkeeper · Ukraine
SL Benfica · Liga Portugal · Foot: right · Height: 199 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€25.0M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€17.8M – €30.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€6.9M – €32.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€15.5M – €36.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€23.3M – €14.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€17.8M – €30.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€6.9M – €32.0M
Projected value (24 months)€15.5M – €36.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€25.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Anatoliy Trubin's performance-implied value at EUR 6.9M-32.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 17.8M-30.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.5M-36.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 59

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh87.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral24.9 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €22.3M vs market €25.0M
Expected appreciationNeutral-3% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €28.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2880 (94% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
87 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1634
Opponent strength
1315
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€15.5M – €36.5M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -51% to +11%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
182 (all positions)
Relative output kept
70%–147%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
73%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26SL BenficaLiga PortugalGK32288094%000.000.00131516340.58
2024/25SL BenficaLiga PortugalGK32288094%000.000.00133216320.51
2023/24SL BenficaLiga PortugalGK28252082%000.000.00137616030.58
2022/23FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaGK28252093%000.000.00126015460.38
2021/22FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaGK12108067%000.000.00126415680.45
2020/21FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaGK21189081%000.000.00127615510.49
2019/20FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaGK1905%000.000.00136416190.54

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica10900101653
2025/26Uefa Champions League QualifyingSL Benfica4360001510
2025/26Supercup Candido De OliveiraSL Benfica190001610
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica121080001662
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueSL Benfica6570001502
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica6540001677
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk6540001697
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk4390001579
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk3270001771
2021/22Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Shakhtar Donetsk3270001448
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk5450001716
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk4360001539

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Diogo Costa
Liga Portugal · 2024
25€40.0M€40.0Mflat
André Onana
Eredivisie · 2020
24€36.0M€12.0Mfell
Odysseas Vlachodimos
Liga Portugal · 2020
26€12.0M€15.0Mrose
Jasper Cillessen
Eredivisie · 2016
27€12.0M€9.0Mfell
Mike Maignan
Ligue 1 · 2021
26€25.0M€45.0Mrose
Rui Patrício
Liga Portugal · 2015
27€15.0M€16.0Mflat
Jeroen Zoet
Eredivisie · 2018
27€10.0M€5.5Mfell
Bruno Varela
Liga Portugal · 2018
24€8.0M€2.4Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
10 Aug 2023Shakhtar D.Benfica€10.0M€22.0M
1 Jan 2020Shakhtar IIShakhtar D.UnknownData unavailable
23 Jul 2018Shakhtar U17Shakhtar IIUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Anatoliy Trubin · MoneyballAI