Zeno Debast
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Zeno Debast's performance-implied value at EUR 3.6M-20.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 20.1M-38.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 17.1M-35.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 16
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 78.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €29.8M vs market €28.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 12% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1177 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 78 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1656
- Opponent strength
- 1293
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 12%
- Resale range (24m)
- €17.1M – €35.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 31 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +30% (IQR -40% to +78%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1177 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CB | 17 | 1177 | 38% | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 1293 | 1656 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CB | 31 | 2126 | 69% | 0 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 1307 | 1610 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 28 | 2476 | 92% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1381 | 1516 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 34 | 2905 | 95% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1303 | 1432 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 5 | 392 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1313 | 1459 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 4 | 179 | 0 | 0 | 1589 |
| 2025/26 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1617 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 8 | 568 | 1 | 1 | 1621 |
| 2024/25 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1628 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | 1514 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Mário Liga Portugal · 2023 | 23 | €16.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Lutsharel Geertruida Eredivisie · 2022 | 22 | €12.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Calvin Bassey Eredivisie · 2023 | 23 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Quilindschy Hartman Eredivisie · 2023 | 22 | €10.0M | €14.0M | rose |
| Lisandro Martínez Eredivisie · 2021 | 23 | €23.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Daniele Rugani Serie A · 2019 | 25 | €22.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Marquinhos Ligue 1 · 2014 | 20 | €25.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Alexander Bah Liga Portugal · 2024 | 27 | €13.0M | €7.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2024 | RSC Anderlecht | Sporting | €18.1M | €18.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Anderlecht U21 | RSC Anderlecht | Unknown | €800k |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Anderlecht U18 | Anderlecht U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Anderlecht Yth. | Anderlecht U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.