Adam Obert
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Adam Obert's performance-implied value at EUR 2.8M-7.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.3M-11.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.2M-12.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.87x the positional average in the league (2782 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 60
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 58.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €7.3M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2782 (81% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 58 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1376
- Opponent strength
- 1502
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.2M – €12.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 50 pts; role change LB -> LM; relative output down 30% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +41% (IQR -24% to +66%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | LM | 35 | 2782 | 81% | 0 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.19 | 1502 | 1376 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | LB | 21 | 1076 | 31% | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.18 | 1533 | 1368 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | CB | 17 | 940 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1591 | 1349 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | CB | 6 | 273 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1522 | 1310 | 0.89 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 2 | 179 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 2 | 97 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 3 | 284 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerdy Schouten Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €9.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Matías Vecino Serie A · 2015 | 24 | €4.2M | €13.0M | rose |
| Kristian Thorstvedt Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €8.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Óscar Mingueza Laliga · 2024 | 25 | €8.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Sofyan Amrabat Serie A · 2020 | 24 | €14.5M | €10.0M | fell |
| Odil Akhmedov Premier Liga · 2014 | 27 | €6.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Masaya Okugawa Bundesliga · 2022 | 26 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Alberto Grassi Serie A · 2018 | 23 | €7.0M | €5.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2021 | Sampdoria U19 | Cagliari | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Sampdoria U18 | Sampdoria U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sampdoria U17 | Sampdoria U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 7 Aug 2018 | Zbroj. Brno U17 | Sampdoria U17 | €50k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Zbro. Brno Yth. | Zbroj. Brno U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.