Maxi Araújo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Maxi Araújo's performance-implied value at EUR 6.0M-21.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 26.2M-39.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 22.1M-42.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 22
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 78.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €34.1M vs market €35.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2215 (72% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.37
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 78 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1656
- Opponent strength
- 1319
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €22.1M – €42.0M
Trajectory drivers: role change LM -> LB; relative output up 37% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -14% (IQR -17% to +20%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | LB | 29 | 2215 | 72% | 5 | 4 | 0.37 | 0.19 | 1319 | 1656 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | LM | 28 | 1775 | 58% | 3 | 5 | 0.41 | 0.20 | 1315 | 1610 | 0.51 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 11 | 982 | 2 | 1 | 1684 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Uruguay | 3 | 252 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1617 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 10 | 625 | 1 | 2 | 1623 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Pereira Liga Portugal · 2018 | 25 | €20.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Jordan Teze Eredivisie · 2024 | 25 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Alejandro Grimaldo Liga Portugal · 2021 | 26 | €22.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Marcos Acuña Liga Portugal · 2019 | 28 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Lutsharel Geertruida Eredivisie · 2023 | 23 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Yaroslav Rakitskyi Premier Liga · 2016 | 27 | €10.0M | €8.5M | flat |
| Pepê Liga Portugal · 2023 | 26 | €25.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Lisandro Martínez Eredivisie · 2022 | 24 | €32.0M | €45.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2024 | Toluca | Sporting | €13.7M | €7.5M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Puebla FC | Toluca | €5.6M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Wanderers | Puebla FC | €2.0M | €450k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Wanderers U19 | Wanderers | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.