Maximilian Beier
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Maximilian Beier's performance-implied value at EUR 22.5M-69.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 31.9M-51.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 24.1M-60.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.94x the positional average in the league (2037 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 30
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 91th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €44.7M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2037 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.80
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.50
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 91 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1656
- Opponent strength
- 1472
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €24.1M – €60.6M
Trajectory drivers: role change ST -> SS.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -54% to +22%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | SS | 32 | 2037 | 67% | 9 | 9 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 1472 | 1656 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | ST | 29 | 1590 | 52% | 8 | 6 | 0.79 | 0.45 | 1517 | 1680 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | ST | 33 | 2435 | 80% | 16 | 3 | 0.70 | 0.69 | 1528 | 1471 | 1.01 |
| 2020/21 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | ST | 3 | 9 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 1372 | 1525 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | ST | 6 | 104 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 1440 | 1558 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 528 | 1 | 1 | 1623 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 171 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Germany | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 12 | 616 | 1 | 0 | 1614 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 133 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 100 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 136 | 2 | 1 | 1390 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dušan Vlahović Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €65.0M | €35.0M | fell |
| Victor Osimhen Serie A · 2022 | 24 | €65.0M | €100M | rose |
| Mario Balotelli Serie A · 2014 | 24 | €30.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Rony Lopes Ligue 1 · 2018 | 23 | €28.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Bertrand Traoré Ligue 1 · 2018 | 23 | €18.0M | €9.5M | fell |
| Donyell Malen Bundesliga · 2024 | 25 | €40.0M | €45.0M | flat |
| Raheem Sterling Premier League · 2017 | 23 | €45.0M | €140M | rose |
| Youssef En-Nesyri Laliga · 2021 | 24 | €40.0M | €20.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2024 | Hoffenheim | Dortmund | €28.5M | €30.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Hannover 96 | Hoffenheim | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 19 Aug 2021 | Hoffenheim | Hannover 96 | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Hoffenheim U19 | Hoffenheim | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Hoffenheim U17 | Hoffenheim U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | E. Cottbus Yth. | Hoffenheim U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | BSC Süd Yth. | E. Cottbus Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.