
Bruninho
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bruninho's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.25x the positional average in the league (2001 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 87
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 30.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €666k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2001 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.54
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.50
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 31 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1213
- Opponent strength
- 1160
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €566k – €1.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -44% to +27%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Karpaty Lviv | Premier Liga | AM | 26 | 2001 | 74% | 8 | 4 | 0.54 | 0.50 | 1160 | 1213 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Karpaty Lviv | Premier Liga | AM | 24 | 1743 | 65% | 8 | 3 | 0.57 | 0.56 | 1196 | 1185 | 0.28 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Karpaty Lviv | 1 | 17 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Karpaty Lviv | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artem Kozak Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Jamie McGrath Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 28 | €900k | €1.2M | rose |
| Artem Chelyadin Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €800k | €250k | fell |
| Yan Dhanda Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 26 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Keanu Baccus Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 26 | €900k | €700k | fell |
| Iago Siqueira Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €400k | €500k | rose |
| Blair Spittal Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 28 | €550k | €800k | rose |
| Talles Brener Premier Liga · 2023 | 25 | €600k | €450k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Atlético-MG | Karpaty Lviv | €800k | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Karpaty Lviv | Atlético-MG | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 5 Sept 2024 | Atlético-MG | Karpaty Lviv | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Ceará SC | Atlético-MG | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 9 Jan 2024 | Atlético-MG | Ceará SC | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 31 Dec 2023 | Guarani | Atlético-MG | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Atlético-MG | Guarani | Free / loan | €600k |
| 31 Dec 2022 | CRB | Atlético-MG | Free / loan | €600k |
| 3 Aug 2022 | Atlético-MG | CRB | Free / loan | €600k |
| 2 Aug 2022 | Juventude | Atlético-MG | Free / loan | €600k |
| 28 May 2021 | Atlético-MG | Juventude | Free / loan | €500k |
| 24 May 2021 | Confiança | Atlético-MG | Free / loan | €550k |
| 2 Mar 2021 | Atlético-MG | Confiança | Free / loan | €550k |
| 28 Feb 2021 | Sport Recife | Atlético-MG | Free / loan | €550k |
| 11 Mar 2020 | Atlético-MG | Sport Recife | Free / loan | €750k |
| 1 Jun 2018 | Atlético-MG U20 | Atlético-MG | Unknown | €50k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.