Festy Ebosele
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Festy Ebosele's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-3.8M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 22.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.7M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 689 (23% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 23 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1357
- Opponent strength
- 1290
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €974k – €3.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -36% to +1%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 689 league minutes last season.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | RB | 14 | 689 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1290 | 1357 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | RB | 7 | 114 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1164 | 1286 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | RM | 31 | 1706 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 1501 | 1420 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | RM | 17 | 401 | 12% | 0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.25 | 1457 | 1421 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Basaksehir FK | 3 | 98 | 1 | 0 | 1386 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 1 | 67 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panagiotis Retsos Super League 1 · 2023 | 25 | €2.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Rick van Drongelen Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 24 | €1.5M | €1.4M | flat |
| Alexis Duarte Premier Liga · 2023 | 23 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Dexter Lembikisa Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 21 | €3.0M | €800k | fell |
| Giulian Biancone Super League 1 · 2024 | 24 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Kazımcan Karataş Super Lig · 2024 | 21 | €1.9M | €2.0M | flat |
| Rafael Fernandes Liga Portugal · 2024 | 22 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Lefteris Lyratzis Super League 1 · 2022 | 22 | €1.5M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2025 | Udinese | Basaksehir | €1.5M | €6.0M |
| 30 Jan 2025 | Watford | Udinese | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Udinese | Watford | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Derby | Udinese | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Derby U23 | Derby | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Derby U18 | Derby U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Bray Academy | Derby U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Moyne Rangers | Bray Academy | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.