Victor Parada
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Victor Parada's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-5.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.7M-6.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.2M-7.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 50
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 52.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.0M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2152 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 52 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1410
- Opponent strength
- 1514
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.2M – €7.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -32% to +56%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | LB | 30 | 2152 | 63% | 0 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 1514 | 1410 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | LB | 2 | 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1380 | 1431 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 3 | 139 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 2 | 177 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Achraf Lazaar Serie A · 2016 | 24 | €2.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Davide Zappacosta Serie A · 2015 | 23 | €5.5M | €8.5M | rose |
| José Copete Laliga · 2023 | 24 | €3.5M | €3.0M | flat |
| Abdelhamid El Kaoutari Ligue 1 · 2013 | 23 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Rafael Tolói Serie A · 2016 | 26 | €4.5M | €11.0M | rose |
| Miiko Albornoz Bundesliga · 2015 | 25 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Fabian Schär Bundesliga · 2016 | 25 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Antonino Gallo Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €4.5M | €3.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2025 | CD Mirandés | Alavés | Free / loan | €500k |
| 11 Aug 2024 | Alavés | CD Mirandés | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Alavés B | Alavés | Unknown | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Real Unión | Alavés B | Free / loan | €150k |
| 30 Jul 2022 | Alavés B | Real Unión | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | San Ignacio | Alavés B | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Alavés U19 | San Ignacio | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | AKA Salzb. U18 | Alavés U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Rayo Youth | AKA Salzb. U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.