Tyler Morton
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tyler Morton's performance-implied value at EUR 7.1M-22.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 23.1M-41.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 18.6M-49.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.93x the positional average in the league (2524 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 43
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 75.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €32.4M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2524 (83% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 75 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1554
- Opponent strength
- 1458
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €18.6M – €49.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +71% (IQR +40% to +89%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | DM | 29 | 2524 | 82% | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 1458 | 1554 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 10 | 638 | 0 | 1 | 1445 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 1 | 60 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 1 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1632 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franck Kessié Serie A · 2020 | 24 | €20.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Houssem Aouar Ligue 1 · 2020 | 22 | €49.5M | €25.0M | fell |
| Davide Frattesi Serie A · 2022 | 23 | €20.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Juan Cuadrado Serie A · 2013 | 25 | €15.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni Ligue 1 · 2022 | 22 | €60.0M | €100M | rose |
| Granit Xhaka Bundesliga · 2016 | 24 | €35.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Martín Zubimendi Laliga · 2023 | 24 | €40.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Lucas Paquetá Ligue 1 · 2022 | 25 | €35.0M | €65.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2025 | Liverpool | Lyon | €10.0M | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Liverpool U21 | Liverpool | Unknown | €8.0M |
| 31 May 2024 | Hull City | Liverpool U21 | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Liverpool U21 | Hull City | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 31 May 2023 | Blackburn | Liverpool U21 | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 1 Aug 2022 | Liverpool U21 | Blackburn | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Liverpool U18 | Liverpool U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Liverpool Youth | Liverpool U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.