Georgiy Sudakov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Georgiy Sudakov's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-13.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.8M-28.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 12.0M-36.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.59x the positional average in the league (1692 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 48
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 73th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €20.3M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1692 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.43
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 73 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1600
- Opponent strength
- 1313
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €12.0M – €36.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 23 pts; changed club; team strength up (+186 Elo); league level up (+132 Elo); relative output down 38% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +12% (IQR -19% to +59%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1692 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | AM | 22 | 1422 | 46% | 4 | 2 | 0.38 | 0.23 | 1313 | 1634 | 0.58 |
| 2025/26 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | AM | 3 | 270 | 10% | 0 | 2 | 0.67 | 0.27 | 1105 | 1420 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | AM | 25 | 2109 | 78% | 13 | 4 | 0.73 | 0.37 | 1174 | 1414 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | AM | 23 | 1776 | 66% | 6 | 4 | 0.51 | 0.30 | 1256 | 1497 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | AM | 29 | 2318 | 86% | 5 | 8 | 0.50 | 0.26 | 1265 | 1546 | 0.38 |
| 2021/22 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | AM | 10 | 487 | 30% | 4 | 1 | 0.92 | 0.37 | 1234 | 1568 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | CM | 10 | 290 | 12% | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.12 | 1250 | 1551 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 9 | 651 | 0 | 1 | 1627 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 5 | 284 | 0 | 0 | 1339 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1315 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 8 | 701 | 2 | 1 | 1636 |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 271 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 6 | 540 | 1 | 0 | 1650 |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 247 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | 1543 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 6 | 486 | 0 | 2 | 1698 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 390 | 0 | 1 | 1579 |
| 2021/22 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 1534 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1395 |
| 2020/21 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 91 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1616 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1811 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wendel Premier Liga · 2021 | 24 | €17.0M | €24.0M | rose |
| Raphael Onyedika Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 23 | €10.0M | €23.0M | rose |
| Sebastian Szymanski Eredivisie · 2023 | 24 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Danilo Pereira Liga Portugal · 2018 | 27 | €24.0M | €24.0M | flat |
| Fred Premier Liga · 2016 | 23 | €12.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| William Carvalho Liga Portugal · 2018 | 26 | €25.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Ibrahim Sangaré Eredivisie · 2022 | 25 | €24.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Daler Kuzyaev Premier Liga · 2019 | 26 | €11.0M | €8.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Shakhtar D. | Benfica | €20.3M | €25.0M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Benfica | Shakhtar D. | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Shakhtar D. | Benfica | Free / loan | €32.0M |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Shakhtar II | Shakhtar D. | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Shakhtar U19 | Shakhtar II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Shakhtar U17 | Shakhtar U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.