Keane Lewis-Potter
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Keane Lewis-Potter's performance-implied value at EUR 29.0M-44.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.1M-32.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.9M-33.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 36
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 93.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €25.7M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1970 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.27
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.26
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 94 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1612
- Opponent strength
- 1593
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.9M – €33.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 33 pts; relative output up 52% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -23% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Brentford FC | Premier League | LB | 36 | 1970 | 58% | 3 | 3 | 0.27 | 0.25 | 1593 | 1612 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Brentford FC | Premier League | LB | 38 | 3100 | 91% | 1 | 4 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 1579 | 1583 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Brentford FC | Premier League | LW | 30 | 1441 | 42% | 3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 1549 | 1500 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Brentford FC | Premier League | LW | 10 | 316 | 9% | 0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.38 | 1487 | 1623 | 1.23 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 3 | 239 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 2 | 189 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 1 | 69 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nayef Aguerd Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €35.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Kurt Zouma Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €25.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Issa Diop Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €18.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Ben Chilwell Premier League · 2020 | 24 | €40.0M | €38.0M | flat |
| Kristoffer Ajer Premier League · 2022 | 24 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Aymeric Laporte Laliga · 2016 | 22 | €25.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Igor Zubeldia Laliga · 2021 | 24 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Sven Botman Premier League · 2024 | 24 | €45.0M | €35.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2022 | Hull City | Brentford | €19.0M | €12.0M |
| 31 May 2019 | Bradford PA | Hull City | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 29 Mar 2019 | Hull City | Bradford PA | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Hull U18 | Hull City | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.