António Silva

22 yrs · Centre-back · Portugal
SL Benfica · Liga Portugal · Foot: right · Height: 187 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: HighContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€25.0M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€11.1M – €25.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€5.1M – €30.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€15.6M – €34.6M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€20.8M – €18.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€11.1M – €25.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€5.1M – €30.0M
Projected value (24 months)€15.6M – €34.6M
Dashed line: current market value (€25.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates António Silva's performance-implied value at EUR 5.1M-30.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.1M-25.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.6M-34.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 87

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh80.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeFavorable22.7 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €14.8M vs market €25.0M
Expected appreciationLow-10% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentHighbreakout probability 9%
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €45.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1858 (61% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.10
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.05
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
81 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1634
Opponent strength
1283
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
High
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
9%
Resale range (24m)
€15.6M – €34.6M

Trajectory drivers: relative output down 40% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +18% (IQR -9% to +47%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
66 (DEF)
Relative output kept
57%–168%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
76%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26SL BenficaLiga PortugalCB25185861%110.100.05128316340.58
2024/25SL BenficaLiga PortugalCB23203667%130.180.08131016320.51
2023/24SL BenficaLiga PortugalCB30261986%200.070.04137916030.58
2022/23SL BenficaLiga PortugalCB30269588%300.100.05138617180.68

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions League QualifyingSL Benfica4360001510
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica6358001567
2025/26Supercup Candido De OliveiraSL Benfica190001610
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica9724001685
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueSL Benfica6570001502
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica4277001677
2023/24Supercup Candido De OliveiraSL Benfica190001744
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica10896201598

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Rúben Dias
Liga Portugal · 2018
21€22.0M€30.5Mrose
Quilindschy Hartman
Eredivisie · 2024
23€23.0M€16.0Mfell
Sergiño Dest
Eredivisie · 2020
20€18.0M€18.0Mflat
Lutsharel Geertruida
Eredivisie · 2022
22€12.0M€32.0Mrose
Eliaquim Mangala
Liga Portugal · 2014
23€23.0M€23.0Mflat
Marcus Pedersen
Eredivisie · 2023
23€7.0M€3.0Mfell
Calvin Bassey
Eredivisie · 2023
23€15.0M€25.0Mrose
Lisandro Martínez
Eredivisie · 2022
24€32.0M€45.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2022Benfica U23BenficaUnknown€300k
1 Jul 2020Benfica U17Benfica U23UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Benfica U15Benfica U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.