
António Silva
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates António Silva's performance-implied value at EUR 5.1M-30.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.1M-25.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.6M-34.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 87
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 80.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €14.8M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 9% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1858 (61% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 81 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1634
- Opponent strength
- 1283
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 9%
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.6M – €34.6M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 40% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +18% (IQR -9% to +47%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | CB | 25 | 1858 | 61% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 1283 | 1634 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | CB | 23 | 2036 | 67% | 1 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 1310 | 1632 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | CB | 30 | 2619 | 86% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 1379 | 1603 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | CB | 30 | 2695 | 88% | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 1386 | 1718 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SL Benfica | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1510 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 6 | 358 | 0 | 0 | 1567 |
| 2025/26 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | SL Benfica | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1610 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 9 | 724 | 0 | 0 | 1685 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | SL Benfica | 6 | 570 | 0 | 0 | 1502 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 4 | 277 | 0 | 0 | 1677 |
| 2023/24 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | SL Benfica | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1744 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 10 | 896 | 2 | 0 | 1598 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rúben Dias Liga Portugal · 2018 | 21 | €22.0M | €30.5M | rose |
| Quilindschy Hartman Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €23.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Sergiño Dest Eredivisie · 2020 | 20 | €18.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Lutsharel Geertruida Eredivisie · 2022 | 22 | €12.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Eliaquim Mangala Liga Portugal · 2014 | 23 | €23.0M | €23.0M | flat |
| Marcus Pedersen Eredivisie · 2023 | 23 | €7.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Calvin Bassey Eredivisie · 2023 | 23 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Lisandro Martínez Eredivisie · 2022 | 24 | €32.0M | €45.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Benfica U23 | Benfica | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Benfica U15 | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.