
Jakob Breum
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jakob Breum's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.1M-5.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.4M-8.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.20x the positional average in the league (2041 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 82
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 34.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.4M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 23% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2041 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.53
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.48
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 34 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1245
- Opponent strength
- 1312
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 23%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.4M – €8.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +6% (IQR -46% to +29%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Go Ahead Eagles | Eredivisie | AM | 28 | 2041 | 67% | 6 | 6 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 1312 | 1245 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Go Ahead Eagles | Eredivisie | AM | 26 | 2067 | 68% | 10 | 5 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 1299 | 1297 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Go Ahead Eagles | Eredivisie | LW | 32 | 1450 | 47% | 3 | 3 | 0.37 | 0.42 | 1349 | 1254 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | LW | 12 | 421 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 1273 | 1240 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | LW | 11 | 261 | 13% | 1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.40 | 1290 | 1218 | 0.45 |
| 2019/20 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | LW | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 1156 | 1264 | 0.41 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Go Ahead Eagles | 6 | 429 | 0 | 1 | 1456 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Go Ahead Eagles | 2 | 94 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Go Ahead Eagles | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1632 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Go Ahead Eagles | 3 | 272 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Go Ahead Eagles | 2 | 168 | 0 | 1 | 1334 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Go Ahead Eagles | 3 | 246 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | Odense Boldklub | 1 | 61 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | Odense Boldklub | 5 | 131 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berat Özdemir Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €3.5M | €4.5M | rose |
| Dal Varesanovic Super Lig · 2024 | 23 | €2.4M | €1.2M | fell |
| Kirill Shchetinin Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €3.0M | €2.8M | flat |
| Kacper Kozlowski Eredivisie · 2024 | 21 | €5.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Nicolas Raskin Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 21 | €5.0M | €6.5M | rose |
| Alexandru Cicâldău Super Lig · 2022 | 25 | €7.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Vini Souza Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 23 | €4.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Joshua Kitolano Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €4.5M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Odense BK | Go Ahead Eagles | Unknown | €450k |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Odense BK U19 | Odense BK | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Odense BK Youth | Odense BK U19 | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Naesby BK Youth | Odense BK Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.