Carney Chukwuemeka
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Carney Chukwuemeka's performance-implied value at EUR 8.1M-23.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.8M-26.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.6M-32.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.47x the positional average in the league (907 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 56
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 83.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €19.3M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 13% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 907 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 84 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1656
- Opponent strength
- 1459
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 13%
- Resale range (24m)
- €10.6M – €32.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +31% (IQR -3% to +59%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 907 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | AM | 28 | 907 | 30% | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.19 | 1459 | 1656 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CM | 10 | 245 | 8% | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.18 | 1493 | 1680 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | AM | 9 | 223 | 7% | 1 | 1 | 0.81 | 0.51 | 1659 | 1629 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CM | 14 | 345 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1643 | 1579 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Aston Villa | Premier League | CM | 12 | 294 | 9% | 0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.25 | 1568 | 1520 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Aston Villa | Premier League | CM | 2 | 18 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 1745 | 1517 | 1.19 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 221 | 1 | 2 | 1591 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 96 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Austria | 2 | 36 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1819 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 2 | 13 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Foyth Laliga · 2021 | 23 | €12.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Gerson Serie A · 2018 | 21 | €10.0M | €11.0M | flat |
| Edoardo Bove Serie A · 2023 | 21 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Nicola Zalewski Serie A · 2022 | 20 | €12.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Amadou Haidara Bundesliga · 2020 | 22 | €15.5M | €24.0M | rose |
| Exequiel Palacios Bundesliga · 2021 | 23 | €13.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Dani Ceballos Laliga · 2019 | 23 | €30.0M | €27.0M | flat |
| Lucas Paquetá Serie A · 2020 | 23 | €22.5M | €35.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Aug 2025 | Chelsea | Dortmund | €20.0M | €18.0M |
| 6 Jul 2025 | Dortmund | Chelsea | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Chelsea | Dortmund | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 4 Aug 2022 | Aston Villa | Chelsea | €18.0M | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Aston Villa U23 | Aston Villa | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Aston Villa U18 | Aston Villa U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | A. Villa Yth. | Aston Villa U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Northampton Jgd | A. Villa Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.