Rafa Marín
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rafa Marín's performance-implied value at EUR 5.1M-14.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.8M-18.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.3M-27.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 52
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 76.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €12.6M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1980 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 76 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1544
- Opponent strength
- 1489
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.3M – €27.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +52% (IQR -27% to +111%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CB | 23 | 1980 | 58% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1489 | 1544 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | CB | 4 | 139 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1353 | 1660 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | CB | 33 | 2442 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1503 | 1431 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Villarreal CF | 5 | 385 | 0 | 1 | 1524 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 2 | 104 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sead Kolasinac Bundesliga · 2016 | 23 | €7.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Leo Østigård Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €8.0M | €13.0M | rose |
| Philipp Lienhart Bundesliga · 2020 | 24 | €9.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Kiliann Sildillia Bundesliga · 2023 | 21 | €12.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Robin Le Normand Laliga · 2020 | 24 | €12.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Paulo Otávio Bundesliga · 2021 | 27 | €8.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Joe Rodon Ligue 1 · 2023 | 26 | €7.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Andrea Conti Serie A · 2020 | 26 | €12.0M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Villarreal | Napoli | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 3 Jul 2025 | Napoli | Villarreal | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 10 Jul 2024 | Real Madrid | Napoli | €12.0M | €7.5M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Alavés | Real Madrid | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 28 Jul 2023 | Real Madrid | Alavés | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | RM Castilla | Real Madrid | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Real Madrid U19 | RM Castilla | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Real Madrid U18 | Real Madrid U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Real Madrid U17 | Real Madrid U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | R.Madrid Yth. | Real Madrid U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Sevilla FC Yth. | R.Madrid Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.