João Neves
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates João Neves's performance-implied value at EUR 37.4M-88.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 108.4M-185.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 72.4M-143.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.75x the positional average in the league (1286 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 6
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 94.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €147M vs market €140M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 6% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1286 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.42
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 94 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1818
- Opponent strength
- 1452
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 6%
- Resale range (24m)
- €72.4M – €143M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts; relative output down 35% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -5% (IQR -32% to +60%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1286 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 21 | 1286 | 42% | 5 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.16 | 1452 | 1817 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 29 | 1851 | 60% | 3 | 8 | 0.53 | 0.24 | 1474 | 1812 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | DM | 33 | 2314 | 76% | 3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 1379 | 1603 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | DM | 17 | 604 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 1378 | 1718 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 13 | 1024 | 2 | 3 | 1683 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Portugal | 3 | 211 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1580 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 17 | 1436 | 1 | 1 | 1710 |
| 2024/25 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1584 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | SL Benfica | 6 | 570 | 0 | 0 | 1502 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1677 |
| 2023/24 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | SL Benfica | 1 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1744 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 3 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 1537 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Valverde Laliga · 2021 | 23 | €65.0M | €100M | rose |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni Laliga · 2024 | 24 | €100M | €70.0M | fell |
| Eduardo Camavinga Laliga · 2022 | 20 | €55.0M | €100M | rose |
| Jamal Musiala Bundesliga · 2024 | 21 | €120M | €100M | flat |
| Pedri Laliga · 2024 | 22 | €80.0M | €150M | rose |
| Mario Götze Bundesliga · 2014 | 22 | €55.0M | €35.0M | fell |
| Gavi Laliga · 2024 | 20 | €90.0M | €30.0M | fell |
| Nuno Mendes Ligue 1 · 2023 | 21 | €65.0M | €70.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2024 | Benfica | PSG | €65.9M | €55.0M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Benfica B | Benfica | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Benfica U19 | Benfica B | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Benfica U15 | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Benfica Yth | Benfica U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.