Jonathan Rowe
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jonathan Rowe's performance-implied value at EUR 4.0M-17.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 21.6M-37.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 14.6M-37.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.82x the positional average in the league (1674 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 11
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 60.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €29.5M vs market €28.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1674 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.32
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.33
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 61 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1522
- Opponent strength
- 1504
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €14.6M – €37.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts; changed club.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -8% (IQR -15% to +4%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1674 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | LW | 28 | 1611 | 47% | 3 | 3 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 1504 | 1523 | 0.93 |
| 2025/26 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | LW | 1 | 63 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 1450 | 1504 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | LW | 28 | 794 | 26% | 3 | 3 | 0.68 | 0.37 | 1413 | 1557 | 0.88 |
| 2021/22 | Norwich City | Premier League | LW | 13 | 208 | 6% | 0 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.69 | 1528 | 1275 | 1.17 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 12 | 704 | 4 | 2 | 1540 |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 2 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1732 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 70 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Norwich City | 2 | 37 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timothy Weah Ligue 1 · 2022 | 22 | €12.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Ander Barrenetxea Laliga · 2024 | 23 | €20.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Justin Kluivert Ligue 1 · 2022 | 23 | €15.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Stephan El Shaarawy Serie A · 2016 | 24 | €17.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Tetê Ligue 1 · 2023 | 23 | €25.0M | €11.0M | fell |
| Demarai Gray Premier League · 2018 | 22 | €20.0M | €14.5M | fell |
| Youssef En-Nesyri Laliga · 2023 | 26 | €20.0M | €24.0M | rose |
| Amine Adli Bundesliga · 2023 | 23 | €20.0M | €18.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 2025 | Marseille | Bologna | €17.0M | €12.0M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Norwich | Marseille | €14.5M | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Marseille | Norwich | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 23 Aug 2024 | Norwich | Marseille | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Norwich City U23 | Norwich | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Norwich U18 | Norwich City U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Norwich Yth. | Norwich U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.