Aljoscha Kemlein
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aljoscha Kemlein's performance-implied value at EUR 2.5M-18.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.0M-17.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.6M-24.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.91x the positional average in the league (1968 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 54
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 50.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €12.7M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 21% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1968 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 50 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1392
- Opponent strength
- 1495
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 21%
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.6M – €24.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 34 pts; role change CM -> DM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +1% (IQR -43% to +56%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | DM | 30 | 1968 | 64% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1495 | 1392 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | CM | 15 | 924 | 30% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.18 | 1506 | 1394 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | DM | 2 | 27 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1325 | 1431 | 1.01 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 2 | 149 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 2 | 46 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | FC St. Pauli | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | 1.FC Union Berlin | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1758 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Youssouf Fofana Ligue 1 · 2020 | 21 | €11.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Gerson Serie A · 2019 | 22 | €13.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Alberto Grassi Serie A · 2018 | 23 | €7.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Nicolás Domínguez Serie A · 2022 | 24 | €13.0M | €17.0M | rose |
| Amine Harit Bundesliga · 2020 | 23 | €24.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Patrick Osterhage Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €7.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Wylan Cyprien Ligue 1 · 2019 | 24 | €14.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Tommaso Pobega Serie A · 2022 | 23 | €16.0M | €10.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2024 | St. Pauli | Union Berlin | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 7 Jan 2024 | Union Berlin | St. Pauli | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | U. Berlin U19 | Union Berlin | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | U. Berlin U17 | U. Berlin U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | U. Berlin Yth. | U. Berlin U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.