Oleg Ocheretko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Oleg Ocheretko's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-7.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.3M-10.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.0M-12.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.54x the positional average in the league (1747 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 53
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 48th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €6.9M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1747 (65% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.31
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 48 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1142
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.0M – €12.0M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+235 Elo); role change RW -> AM; relative output down 38% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +7% (IQR -44% to +33%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1747 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | AM | 28 | 1747 | 65% | 3 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.22 | 1142 | 1420 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Karpaty Lviv | Premier Liga | RW | 26 | 1801 | 67% | 2 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.38 | 1199 | 1185 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | SC Dnipro-1 | Premier Liga | AM | 13 | 959 | 36% | 1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.26 | 1271 | 1335 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | AM | 3 | 136 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 1267 | 1497 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | AM | 13 | 433 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.16 | 1215 | 1546 | 0.38 |
| 2021/22 | FK Mariupol | Premier Liga | AM | 10 | 653 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 1302 | 1139 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | FK Mariupol | Premier Liga | LW | 17 | 1092 | 47% | 2 | 2 | 0.33 | 0.45 | 1278 | 1222 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 6 | 474 | 0 | 0 | 1338 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 1318 |
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 80 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Karpaty Lviv | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 14 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1608 |
| 2021/22 | Ukrainian Cup | FK Mariupol | 2 | 179 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Ukrainian Cup | FK Mariupol | 1 | 75 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Gnezda Cerin Super League 1 · 2023 | 24 | €2.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Artem Bondarenko Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €9.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Aguibou Camara Super League 1 · 2022 | 21 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Mady Camara Super League 1 · 2022 | 25 | €11.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Berat Özdemir Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €4.7M | €6.0M | rose |
| Douglas Augusto Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €4.5M | €6.0M | rose |
| Emre Kılınç Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €5.0M | €2.8M | fell |
| Frank Onyeka Superliga · 2021 | 23 | €6.0M | €8.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2025 | Karpaty Lviv | Shakhtar D. | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 10 Aug 2024 | Shakhtar D. | Karpaty Lviv | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | SC Dnipro-1 | Shakhtar D. | Free / loan | €700k |
| 6 Feb 2024 | Shakhtar D. | SC Dnipro-1 | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | FC Mariupol | Shakhtar D. | Free / loan | €500k |
| 26 Sept 2020 | Shakhtar D. | FC Mariupol | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 3 Aug 2020 | Shakhtar II | Shakhtar D. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Shakhtar U17 | Shakhtar II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.