Lorenzo Bernasconi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lorenzo Bernasconi's performance-implied value at EUR 3.2M-15.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.8M-29.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 12.3M-41.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.77x the positional average in the league (1569 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 54
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 71.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €22.5M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 17% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1569 (46% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 72 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1588
- Opponent strength
- 1512
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 17%
- Resale range (24m)
- €12.3M – €41.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +28% (IQR -14% to +41%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1569 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | LM | 23 | 1569 | 46% | 0 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 1512 | 1588 | 0.93 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 10 | 847 | 0 | 0 | 1697 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 4 | 252 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolò Rovella Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €18.0M | €23.0M | rose |
| Sergi Darder Ligue 1 · 2017 | 24 | €11.0M | €14.0M | rose |
| Diadié Samassékou Bundesliga · 2020 | 24 | €12.0M | €16.0M | rose |
| Azzedine Ounahi Ligue 1 · 2024 | 24 | €12.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Geoffrey Kondogbia Serie A · 2017 | 24 | €18.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Adem Ljajic Serie A · 2016 | 25 | €15.0M | €13.0M | flat |
| Nicolò Zaniolo Serie A · 2020 | 21 | €45.0M | €33.0M | fell |
| Konrad Laimer Bundesliga · 2018 | 21 | €8.0M | €24.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Atalanta U23 | Atalanta | Unknown | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Cremonese | Atalanta U23 | €950k | €125k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Atalanta U23 | Cremonese | Free / loan | €125k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Atalanta U19 | Atalanta U23 | Unknown | €75k |
| 12 Jul 2021 | Cremonese U19 | Atalanta U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Cremonese U17 | Cremonese U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Cremonese Giov. | Cremonese U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Trevigl. Giov. | Cremonese Giov. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.