Carlos Romero
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Carlos Romero's performance-implied value at EUR 4.2M-13.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 19.1M-34.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 14.5M-38.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 39
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 73.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €24.5M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3195 (93% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.27
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 73 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1399
- Opponent strength
- 1482
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €14.5M – €38.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 19 pts; relative output up 48% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -31% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | LB | 36 | 3195 | 93% | 6 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.27 | 1482 | 1399 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | LB | 34 | 2555 | 75% | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.18 | 1545 | 1411 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | LB | 7 | 260 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1425 | 1577 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 1 | 45 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bremer Serie A · 2022 | 25 | €35.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Andrea Ranocchia Serie A · 2013 | 25 | €17.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Axel Disasi Ligue 1 · 2023 | 25 | €30.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Rani Khedira Bundesliga · 2019 | 25 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Nikola Milenković Serie A · 2020 | 23 | €24.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Caio Henrique Ligue 1 · 2023 | 26 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| David Raum Bundesliga · 2022 | 24 | €20.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Wout Faes Ligue 1 · 2022 | 24 | €10.0M | €20.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Espanyol | Villarreal | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 9 Jul 2024 | Villarreal | Espanyol | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Villarreal CF B | Villarreal | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | FC Villarreal C | Villarreal CF B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Villarreal U19 | FC Villarreal C | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Torre L. U19 | Villarreal U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.