Nicolò Tresoldi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nicolò Tresoldi's performance-implied value at EUR 4.7M-28.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 20.0M-36.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 16.0M-53.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.88x the positional average in the league (1811 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 39
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 76.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €29.2M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 13% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1811 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.80
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.45
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 76 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1589
- Opponent strength
- 1342
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 13%
- Resale range (24m)
- €16.0M – €53.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +24% (IQR -9% to +90%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 30 | 1811 | 67% | 13 | 3 | 0.80 | 0.45 | 1342 | 1589 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | Club Brugge KV | 10 | 689 | 6 | 4 | 1412 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Club Brugge KV | 10 | 550 | 3 | 1 | 1696 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Club Brugge KV | 4 | 138 | 1 | 1 | 1448 |
| 2025/26 | Volkswagen Supercup | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1545 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Gimenez Eredivisie · 2023 | 22 | €25.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Darwin Núñez Liga Portugal · 2021 | 22 | €20.0M | €65.0M | rose |
| Krépin Diatta Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 22 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Sofiane Diop Ligue 1 · 2021 | 21 | €16.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Wesley Moraes Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 23 | €20.0M | €13.0M | fell |
| Igor Thiago Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 23 | €25.0M | €65.0M | rose |
| Jonathan David Ligue 1 · 2021 | 21 | €35.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Kasper Dolberg Eredivisie · 2017 | 20 | €14.0M | €18.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Hannover 96 | Club Brugge | €7.5M | €9.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Hannover 96 U19 | Hannover 96 | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Hannover 96 U17 | Hannover 96 U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Hannover Yth. | Hannover 96 U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.