Richard Ríos
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Richard Ríos's performance-implied value at EUR 4.3M-25.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 18.1M-28.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.5M-42.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.86x the positional average in the league (2284 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 41
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 76.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €25.9M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2284 (75% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.35
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 77 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1634
- Opponent strength
- 1325
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.5M – €42.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -26% to -14%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | CM | 27 | 2284 | 75% | 5 | 4 | 0.35 | 0.19 | 1325 | 1634 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 8 | 622 | 1 | 1 | 1627 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SL Benfica | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1510 |
| 2025/26 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | SL Benfica | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1610 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Colombia | 3 | 53 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibrahim Sangaré Eredivisie · 2023 | 26 | €35.0M | €24.0M | fell |
| Wendel Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €24.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| William Carvalho Liga Portugal · 2016 | 24 | €26.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Edson Álvarez Eredivisie · 2023 | 26 | €35.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Marcos Acuña Liga Portugal · 2018 | 27 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Morten Hjulmand Liga Portugal · 2024 | 25 | €40.0M | €45.0M | flat |
| Sebastian Szymanski Eredivisie · 2023 | 24 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Claudinho Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2025 | Palmeiras | Benfica | €27.0M | €16.0M |
| 28 Mar 2023 | Guarani | Palmeiras | €1.4M | €300k |
| 4 Aug 2022 | Flamengo | Guarani | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Mazatlán FC | Flamengo | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Flamengo | Mazatlán FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Flamengo U20 | Flamengo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.