Savinho
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Savinho's performance-implied value at EUR 33.6M-46.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 26.4M-49.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 20.6M-47.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.64x the positional average in the league (821 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Elite | 92.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €33.7M vs market €35.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 11% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 821 (24% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.33
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.26
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 93 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1809
- Opponent strength
- 1579
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 11%
- Resale range (24m)
- €20.6M – €47.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 28 pts; team strength up (+60 Elo); role change RW -> LW.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -30% (IQR -35% to -22%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 821 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Manchester City | Premier League | LW | 24 | 821 | 24% | 1 | 2 | 0.33 | 0.26 | 1579 | 1809 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Manchester City | Premier League | RW | 29 | 1772 | 52% | 1 | 10 | 0.56 | 0.30 | 1560 | 1749 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Girona FC | Laliga | LW | 37 | 2993 | 88% | 9 | 10 | 0.57 | 0.49 | 1496 | 1621 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | RW | 6 | 96 | 3% | 0 | 2 | 1.88 | 0.22 | 1235 | 1649 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 7 | 369 | 0 | 1 | 1664 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 3 | 139 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 9 | 578 | 1 | 1 | 1674 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 4 | 302 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1594 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Girona FC | 4 | 260 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 1477 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Jesus Premier League · 2019 | 22 | €70.0M | €60.0M | flat |
| Ferran Torres Premier League · 2021 | 21 | €50.0M | €30.0M | fell |
| Daniel James Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €18.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Xherdan Shaqiri Bundesliga · 2014 | 23 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi Premier League · 2022 | 22 | €25.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Paco Alcácer Laliga · 2017 | 24 | €18.0M | €37.0M | rose |
| Francisco Trincão Laliga · 2021 | 22 | €22.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Eddie Nketiah Premier League · 2024 | 25 | €30.0M | €10.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2024 | Troyes | Man City | €25.0M | €50.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Girona | Troyes | Free / loan | €50.0M |
| 13 Jul 2023 | Troyes | Girona | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | PSV | Troyes | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 22 Jul 2022 | Troyes | PSV | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 6 Jul 2022 | Atlético-MG | Troyes | €6.5M | €6.0M |
| 3 Aug 2020 | Atlético-MG U20 | Atlético-MG | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.